Election Prediction

I strategize election predictions much differently than I strategize, say, a March Madness Bracket. In a bracket, I tend to predict with my heart. I typically take Memphis all the way through, regardless of all the statistics and rankings. Each term, there are groups of professionals who think the polls are worthy sources of information and those who find it flawed. Both sides are talking heartily about their winning strategies. Both sides are stumping in the same group of swing states. All the while, the polls have ebbed and flowed in keeping with the race's momentum. We have heard the memorable quotes - "trickle-down government" and "binders of women". We have seen intervening news stories - Benghazi and Hurricane Sandy, both of which stirred the pot of electoral politics, but unlikely altered the cauldron. We have heard who is doing better in the ground game, the early voting game, the independents game, the seniors, and the female voting block - both sides maintaining the edge is theirs. We've seen Karl Rove lay waste to his whiteboard. We've seen Axelrod gamble his mustache over this election's outcome.

I have run the gambit of emotions this election cycle. In fact, Romney did not get my primary vote. Frankly, I wondered if anyone would be able to contend with the Obama Machine. When the conventions came along, I got to know Mitt Romney, the candidate. My enthusiasm increased. After the debates, my enthusiasm increased. But when all is quiet, and there is nothing left but wild speculation and spinning pollsters, I worry about the outcome of this election. Fear not. I am not a "gloom and doom" gal. An Obama win will not send me to Canada. In fact, although I did not vote for him in 2008, I felt the gravity of history on my shoulders when he won the White House. Even his non-supporters could find hope in America after witnessing such an important milestone. But alas, for me, my loyalty boils down to my fundamental philosophies on government. A lot of people disagree with each other based on core convictions, so why do we get so heated? Aren't we entitled to throw our life experience, learned studies, and gut-check biases into a pile and find our place on the political spectrum? Heck, I disagree with Republicans on some serious social issues. I just disagree with liberal reasoning down the line. But some of my most precious friends are liberal. I don't find that to be a flaw in them. It makes my life more interesting, enriched, challenged, and diverse - all things I welcome.

So, here it is, my big prediction. It is, in part, based on numbers. It is, in part, based on gut. But I think the real winner come Tuesday night will be Bill Clinton.